Managing in the Age of Uncertainty

Meet (Retired) United Airlines CEO Oscar Munoz

“You’re not yet as good as you think you are.”

What an early-in-career Oscar Munoz was told by his manager when he was an emerging leader at Coca-Cola. These powerful words of feedback set Oscar on a journey that ultimately lead him to the CEO role at United Airlines.

I write this newsletter to share what I’ve learned about managing the next generation of talent — and how it’s different from the boomer generation. I’m lucky to meet people like Oscar, who have experience managing on a big stage with a lot of uncertainty, just like today. He faced the dual pressure of a turnaround at United while navigating Covid, among other challenges (including a heart transplant!) that you can read about in his excellent book Turnaround Time.

I walked away from my interview with a single fundamental truth: that the simple idea of “know thyself” is the key to becoming a great manager and leader.

In his book, Oscar call this “Knowledge of Contribution” — Do you know yourself to the point you can tell me what you do well, and what you don’t do well?

Here is what Oscar emphasized about “know thyself”: “I’ve seen too many young professionals accept jobs for the wrong reasons.” Ambition, he said, can sometimes lead people to accept jobs where their skills and talents don’t map to the role.

I write a lot about the importance of job role alignment — so that the goals of a team and the roles on the team are aligned. But what Oscar is telling me is job roles, ambition and self-awareness need to be aligned too — to increase the odds of being in a position to be a great manager or leader.

Oscar Takes the Road Less Traveled

What’s so interesting at this point in the interview, Oscar applies his own logic to himself. He’s a great story-teller, and I wish I could share every detail of his choice to go to CSX instead of American Express (prior to joining United) — because it felt like a movie.

Amex had the allure and adulation as one of the world’s most successful companies and a New York City location for the role. CSX was an average-performing company at the time in the railroad business; and it wasn’t in NYC. He tells me the recruiter who called him about CSX didn’t want to mention the name of the company on the initial call out of concern that Oscar would turn down the interview.

But Oscar tells me: “You need to listen and learn before you act.” So he goes to Florida to meet the CSX team. Two or three times in the interview, he emphasizes the need to listen and learn. “Can you say these words: Let me tell you what I heard.” It’s great advice.

“I know me,” he says. “I want to be operational. I want to be out there with the people. I’m not a standard CFO. What I heard at CSX is I could be more of myself.” So he eschews Amex and joins CSX where he could be in an operational role. To increase his odds of being a great manager and leader.

Over the next decade, the market cap of CSX increases 10X, and Oscar becomes President and COO of the company. “This kind of turnaround would have never happened at American Express,” he says.

His next job is CEO of United. He didn’t say it, but I think it’s fair to say the United job might not have come his way had he chosen a traditional CFO role at Amex. Talk about taking a risk on yourself.

The Moral of the Story: “Swing Easy.”

Using a sports analogy, Oscar concludes the interview with this advice: “Play within yourself.”

So he offers this advice to young people: “You don’t need to swing for the fences on every opportunity — look for the opportunity where you can ‘swing easy.’” As a golfer myself, I know I always hit the ball farther when I swing easy — because I’m playing golf the way only I play, to my strengths and not my weaknesses.

How do you learn to “swing easy”?

Oscar’s Take-Home Test: “Knowledge of Contribution.”

At this point in the interview, Oscar decides to give readers of Managing in the Age of Uncertainty a homework assignment.

“I have a test that has proven to be 100-percent effective,” he tells me. “Ask your spouse or partner if feedback you’ve received at work is accurate.”

He couldn’t be more prescient. My research into the future of managing found that millennials and gen-z look for managers who are true to themselves. I’m sure my wife and kids would agree with the feedback I’ve received: you’re not good with details, you need to be better with data and process, you are sometimes a line-of-sight manager, don’t be so defensive.

What’s your “Knowledge of Contribution”? What would your spouse, partner or children say about you?

In the end, the best way to increase your odds as a manager or leader starts with yourself. That’s what Oscar Munoz is teaching us.

“Each time I sit across from someone, whether in terms of a formal interview or just a friendly advice, I ask them: How well do you know yourself.” Page 42 of Turnaround Time. I truly enjoyed this book. It reads like a story rather than a list of stuff to do as a manager or leader. It’s a harrowing story, too, because of his heart attack and subsequent transplant, just as he’s emerging as United’s new CEO. He isn’t shy about sharing details of the heart attack. I know I might be doing some things differently with my heart health! He also shares the role of his Mexican-American family and mother in shaping him as a person. I really felt like I knew his mom. Highly recommend the book.

Know a Champion for Manager Excellence?

If your company has a “champion for manager excellence” (like Stefani Okamoto of ServiceNow) ! I’d love to meet and interview them.

In Summary: Principles of Managing in the Age of Uncertainty

• I left Cisco to answer this question with research and evidence: What does the manager of the future look like? What are millennials and gen-z seeking in a manager? Which behaviors, tactics, skills or processes matter? What’s it going to take to attract and keep the best people over the next decade? In short, how to be a great manager.

• Based on this research, the core philosophy of this newsletter is rooted in one idea: successful managers in this moment in time, for this generation of talent, need to be “career dot-connectors.” The next-gen doesn’t expect to spend their entire career on your team — that’s an idea boomers grew up with. A job on your team is like a chapter in a career story to the current generation. If you want the best people on your team, you have to connect the dots between roles on the team and the career opportunities of the people working on the team.

• What is the“Age of Uncertainty”? If the industrial age was about taking predictable steps up the ladder, the age of uncertainty is about finding or discovering the path of a career without any predictable steps, without an obvious ladder — it’s why being a career dot-connector will differentiate you as a manager.

• How to be a Great Manager in the Age of Uncertainty: Be a Career Dot Connector is available on Amazon.

• What kind of manager are you? Take my free self-assessment and learn about yourself.